We’re just 11 months away from the 2018 midterms.

That’s an eternity in politics, and a lot can change, but as it stands right now, Republicans are on track for a very, very bad night.

Compare Trump’s current approval ratings with those of Bush in 2006 and Obama in 2010 and 2014, as well as exit polls for those three midterms elections, and exit polling for Virginia, which just had an election and is a swing state.*

* Virginia has Republican majorities in its congressional delegation, county boards, State Senate and State House.

All numbers CNN for consistency.

2006, National exit poll:
* Presidential approval/disapproval: 43/57, -14%
* 22% of voters said they came out to vote to send a message of support for Bush
* 36% came said they came out to vote to send a message of opposition to Bush
* Net 14% loss for Republicans
* Republicans lost US 31 House seats

2010, National exit poll:
* Presidential approval/disapproval: 44/55, -11%
* 23% of voters said they came out to send a message of support for Obama
* 37% of voters said they came out to send a message of opposition to Obama
* Net 14% loss for Democrats
* Democrats lost 63 US House Seats

2014, National exit poll:
* Presidential approval/disapproval: 44/55, -11%
* 19% of voters said they came out to send a message of support for Obama
* 33% of voters said they came out to send a message of opposition to Obama
* Net 14% loss for Democrats
* Democrats lost 9 US House Seats

2017, Virginia exit poll:
* Presidential approval/disapproval (National): 37/57, -20%
* Presidential approval/disapproval (Virginia): 42/58, -16%
* Only 17% of voters said they came out to vote to send a message of support to Trump
* 34% of voters said they came out to vote to send a message of opposition to Trump
* Net loss of 17% for Republicans
* Virginia Republicans lost 25% of their state House seats, going from 66 to between 48 and 51 seats (depending on recounts)


Trump’s approval ratings, and net drag on his party’s ticket, are all worse than Bush or Obama when they suffered massive losses.

Unless things change, drastically, Republicans are looking at the very real possibility of Nancy Pelosi becoming speaker for the first time since 2009, when Trump donated to her effort to oust the Republican majority.

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