We have been saying it for over a year: the Democrats have a crisis on their hands leading up to the midterms. But don’t take it from us.

Democrats are lost when it comes to connecting with real Hispanics and real Americans:

Here is what Axios is saying:

  • Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial.
  • Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.

Why it matters: Democrats’ hopes for retaining power rest on nonwhite voters remaining a reliable part of the party’s coalition. Their theory of the case collapses if Republicans make even incremental gains with those voters.

What the data show: Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among Hispanics on the generic congressional ballot, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll out this week. Dems held a 47-point edge with Hispanics during the 2018 midterms.

  • Nearly every House pickup in the 2020 election came from a woman or nonwhite challenger.

What’s happening: Democratic strategists say the party’s biggest vulnerability is assuming that the priorities of progressive activists are the same as those of working-class voters.

  • Progressive activists led the push to cut police budgets. Communities of color have borne the brunt of higher crime.
  • Hispanics living on the U.S.-Mexico border are more likely to favor the tougher border security measures championed by Republicans.
  • The recall of liberal school board members and a district attorney in San Francisco was fueled by disillusioned Asian-American Democrats.

Between the lines: Add the reality of growing inflation and worries of recession, and you see why Democrats are losing ground with a core part of their coalition.

  • This week’s Times/Siena poll found affluent voters care about gun control and abortion rights. Working-class voters are squarely focused on the economy.

Reality check: Suburban districts still make up the majority of congressional battlegrounds, and the GOP’s Trumpified brand remains a threat to limit their gains.

The bottom line: The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads.

-NRSC

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